A while back someone brought up the subject of the scarcity of rice in Alpha's world. A recent study found that rice yields will fall dramatically as the world warms up. This is very bad as the world needs increases in rice production every year to keep up with population growth.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3841477.stm
Global warming could have a severe effect on rice production, say scientists working in the Philippines.
The reseachers studied 12 years of rice yields and 25 years of temperature data, to work out how they are linked.
Yields dropped by 10% for each degree of warming, an alarming trend since rice is the staple diet for most of the world's expanding population, they say.
The study, by an international team, appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal.
- Loran
Tuesday, June 29, 2004
That's really cool! =D Of course, the smartness and faithfulness to real-life phenomena is not unexpected in YKK. ^_^
- Carn
Tuesday, June 29, 2004
Howdy,
It just means that Norway will become one of the top rice producing countries :)
Best,
Dave
- dDave
Tuesday, June 29, 2004
Actually not. Norways temperature will decrease about 5- 10 C. Norway gets its heat from Golf stream and because of global warming, its hight risk that it change its course. This will affect for fishing too. Nobody actually know what will happen, so its best if we don't bother ourselves with that kind of thinks, We are dead anyways before this will happen.
- Teppo Takatukka.
Wednesday, June 30, 2004
While diminished production of rice would certainly be a cultural shock to certain Asian countries, what about different crops like millet? It grows sufficiently in hot, arid clima like the habitable belt around the Sahara.
- Rainer
Wednesday, June 30, 2004
*nods* England and the rest of Western/Northern Europe would probably freeze as the Gulf Stream gets diverted.
- Carn_Carby
Wednesday, June 30, 2004
Indeed we would. London is about 200 miles further north than Toronto. Where I live (Wiltshire)is just about level with the southernmost tip of Hudson Bay. If the Gulf Stream shuts down it is going to be VERY unpleasant here, and worse over in continental Europe.
- Andy Tucker
Wednesday, June 30, 2004
@ Andy
According to this article http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0130-11.htm it wouldn't just become "unpleasant" in London - a fully fledged ice age might be possible, as has been before. OTOH your remark might have been typical British understatement;-)
- Rainer
Wednesday, June 30, 2004
Rainer wrote "...what about different crops like millet?"
The problem as I understand it is that rice is the most productive crop in terms of calorie per acre. As the population grows and the world warms up, there will be less arable land (due to desertification) and lower crop yields. Eventually, we end up with dimishing resources, lower productivity, and booming demand.
A shift to other crops will be inevitable, but it can not solve the calorie per acre problem.
The only solution is a severe reduction in population followed by more sustainable economics and a more enlightened social structure. Curiously, that seems to have happened in Alpha's world.
- Loran
Wednesday, June 30, 2004
> The only solution is a severe reduction in population
> followed by more sustainable economics and a more
> enlightened social structure.
Another solution is genetic engineering. Rice can be modified to crop as efficiently in warmer climate.
There are also other possibilities, but they are more complex and expensive (e.g. greenhouses with controlled temperature)
So, if there are various solutions, maybe the reason of scarcity of rice in YKK world is not the global warming, but something else?
- Cornel
Thursday, July 1, 2004
I better calm down you people. Most of the scientist believe that the worst case scenario is very unlikely to happen even if the Gulf stream is disturbted. Unlike the above link tells, there is more reasons for ice ages to happen than the sea currents. We can make the new ice age to happen thought, if we fight World War 3 with nuclear bombs (Nuclear winter scenario.), but this haven't happened in YKK and I don't think it will happen in reality either.
If you want to think another reasons for possible agriculture threats, one good guess is Earths magnetic field disappearing. The magnetic field protect us from UV radiation, which comes from the sun. Earths magnetic poles reverse each other during the time period of average 700000 years. The lastes reverse happened about 780000 years ago, so it might be happening now. The electromagnetic field has weakened as long as measurements have been taken and in this rate it will disappear in 1500 years. After that it will come back, but during that time ozone layer might be the only thing protecting us from the sun. We don't know for sure and life have survived during these times. Otherwise we couldn't exist.
- Teppo Takatukka
Thursday, July 1, 2004
Been here before- check out the "What really happened in the past?" thread.
Drastic weather change isn't likely to happen "The Day After Tomorrow", though the Gulf Stream shutting down could change things quite rapidly, withing decades, maybe even years. Like I said, Western Europe would get rather unpleasant. Some sort of hat might even be in order.
You could get a surge northwards in normally tropical insect pests and other plant diseases though, and it doesn't take much of a sea level change to flood some of our best agriculturual land. Change in climate pattern could also be a factor, too much or too little rain in already established agricultural areas. There may be new areas, but it's whether we could react fact enough to maintain the population. Sensei said she remembered when the roads were full. But where did all the people go from that time? That's the real mystery. Voluntary birth control? Disease? War? We've looked at all of these. You think there'd be evidence of huge cemetaries or grave sites but apart from the cemetry Kokone visited in one story I've not seen any sign of these.
- Andy Tucker
Thursday, July 1, 2004
The magnetic field and high UV exposure theory would explain some comments made by characters in the manga. For example, the man running the cafe at the midpoint in the old subway tunnel says "In the end, I might end up moving down here, though."
http://ykk.misago.org/Volume6/116
As for the cemetaries, if there was a mass die-off the dead would be burned or buried in mass grave sites. Since the water has been rising steadily over this period, the graves may be largely below water.
I still wonder about what happened to the Alpha series and why there is that memorial. It is odd that nobody talks to Kokone about it. Was there a time when the robots sacrificed themselves to preserve some part of humanity?
- Loran
Thursday, July 1, 2004
@ Teppo Takatukka
>>>
The electromagnetic field has weakened as long as measurements have been taken and in this rate it will disappear in 1500 years. After that it will come back, but during that time ozone layer might be the only thing protecting us from the sun.
<<<
I have good news at least on this point;-)
According to simulations by German scientists from the "Institut für Astronomie und Astrophysik der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München" the clash of the ionized solar wind and the neutral higher parts of our atmosphere (at ca. 350 km altitude) will result in a magnetic field, building up sufficient protection *within 15 min!* and becoming identical to Earth's own within a few hours. Intensity would just diminish on the side devaluated to the Sun. The same thing happens with Venus, btw, who has no own magnetic field. Right now I can only offer a German URL:
http://www.astronomie.de/bibliothek/artikel/sonnensystem/erdmagnetfeld/, but the results of this current discovery will make it into the next but one issue of Astronomy&Astrophysics.
P.S. Instead of tailoring rice genes we might concentrate on reducing energy consume - use a Mini Cooper instead of a SUV.:p
- Rainer
Thursday, July 1, 2004
Howdy,
>P.S. Instead of tailoring rice genes we might concentrate on reducing energy consume - use a Mini Cooper instead of a SUV
Or a scooter!
Best,
Dave
- dDave
Thursday, July 1, 2004
Definitely use a Mini. "This is the self preservation society..."
Brownie point for getting the reference. :P
- Andy Tucker
Friday, July 2, 2004
> It just means that Norway will become one of the top rice producing countries :)
Well, who knows? In Norway climate does seem to have become warmer, I heard that currently spring comes one week earlier (thus also time to prepare the fields for this years crops) than it used to just a few generations ago. Similarly autumn is one week later.
So a few years ago when the Norwegian authorities invited EU officials to see the "arctic agriculture" the officials inquired where the wineyards might be since the weather seemed favourable.
Also winters are far less harsh than they used to be
No solid scientific proof of course but all in all climatgic changes have been mostly beneficial here.
- Your resident Norwegian
Friday, July 2, 2004
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